Enrollment Data on Homeschoolers

Professor Milton Gaither’s recent post, Homeschooling Enrollment Data Trends got me to thinking about “homeschooling data” again. The fact that he did not claim “explosive homeschool growth” was refreshing. Some states gather data on homeschoolers, some do not. I live in a state that does not, so I’ve been curious about the numbers that some in the media and elsewhere throw out occasionally about homeschooling’s continued explosive growth. Larry and Susan Kaseman addressed this issue concerning one homeschool investigator in a 2003 HEM Taking Charge colulmn , Who Is Pat Lines and Why Is She Writing About Homeschooling? They noted:

Lines presents misleading statistics and information about homeschoolers, although she made her name as an expert on homeschooling statistics. For example, she exaggerates the rate at which homeschooling is growing. In her 2003 monograph, Lines admits that “the number [of homeschoolers] now appears to be growing at a less dramatic pace,” but she still assumes “a 10 percent future annual growth rate.” (p. 7) In fact, since the 1998-1999 school year, the number of homeschoolers has declined in Washington by an average of 1.8% a year; increased in Wisconsin at a rate of only 4.1% a year; and in Florida, just 7.7%. (Notes: Lines cites Florida as a high growth state. From 1990 through 1995, Washington and Wisconsin had higher average growth rates than Florida. The decline in the rate of growth began before virtual charter schools opened.)

in addition to researchers studying our community, homeschoolers have been featured in the national, state and local media on many occasions over the years and many of the writers continue to claim that there is explosive homeschool growth. In my state it has been reported that there are over 60,000 homeschoolers, but they never cited a source, nor could they put their finger on where they got this particular number when contacted. Home educators in Ohio are not kept track of via the Ohio State Department of Education, but by local school districts where we notify of our intent to home educate. in response, OHEC studied the number issue and explosive growth claim and came up with Trends in Homeschool Numbers and this spreadsheet, Homeschoolers: Numbers and Yearly Percent Change. OHEC also heard back from the Ohio Department of Education verifying that they do not collect this data.

It is maddening to be included in a statistic that no one can confirm, so finally I contacted Ohio’s live online reference service, KnowItNow via our county library and after several days, they did come up with a logical answer. They said that many used a formula shared at A-Z homeschooling that is based on the explosive growth that had occurred in the 80’s and 90’s. Not to critique Anne because she has since updated it and added plenty of disclaimers to her article such as:

“I can get the numbers online of homeschool students in only seven states, so I am using their average growth rate, and assuming it applies in other states. This probably isn’t accurate to assume, but is all I have to use.”

It is no secret that I’m not a big fan of homeschool statistics, studies, surveys and data gathering. At best they provide a very flat picture of those they are studying, are only as accurate as the data gatherer, the formula and the information provided, and often end up creating a false image of the larger community.

I’m aware that some in our own community have used similar data gathering to promote how wonderful the choice to homeschool is, often claiming that homeschoolers test better and excel in many ways. I’m not saying I’m not very proud of the individuals who have succeeded in this manner, but again, it does not paint an accurate picture of the community as a whole. As a home educator, there are many different ways that I view success and it is often very different from those of a statistician, or even of a fellow homeschooler. What is accurate? I don’t know that anyone can answer to that question, but I think Mark Hegener, publisher of Home Education Magazine comes close with this statement from the Washington Post a few years back:

Any way you slice the American pie, you’re going to find homeschoolers sticking out of it.

December 14, 2008 | Filed Under Empowerment, Fundamental Right, Home education, Statistics, Surveys

Comments

9 Responses to “Enrollment Data on Homeschoolers”

Daryl Cobranchi on December 23rd, 2008 7:47 am

Stats are available for NC. For the last five years the growth in the number of homeschools (NOT homeschoolers for whom data is not available) has grown 8%, 9%, 6%, 7%, 6%. The growth rate has been trending consistently down since 1999.

We\’re probably at 5-6% in NC right now.
Amy Cortez on December 23rd, 2008 11:27 am

One thought I had about the lack of enrollment data is that many of the homeschoolers I encounter are not “joiners” and it is typically organized groups that have a purpose for enrollment numbers that in turn get “reported” for their own puposes. One case in point HSLDA. They love to tout huge numbers for thier own purposes.

In the circles I am familiar with, gifted groups are also a segment of the homeschool population that seems to count those who are homeschooled. It seems gifted children tend to thrive in a homeschool setting. But here, you would most likely get “crossover” information if you relied on these numbers for enrollment data.

In a book I am authoring about homeschooling a gifted child, I relied on census data: “According to widely-repeated estimates, as many as two million American children are schooled at home, with the number growing as much as 15 to 20 percent per year.“ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Education & Social Stratification Branch August 2001, Working Paper Series No. 53. Author: Kurt J. Bauman, Created: September 13, 2001, Last Revised: July 09, 2008.

I personally think it’s good that there are no good data points. Keeps us anonymous. Keeps those who would “reform” out of our business.
Mary Nix on December 24th, 2008 1:16 pm

Thanks for the NC data, Daryl.

Amy, I agree that there are no good data points. I think homeschool numbers are growing in some states and others they aren’t.

The cybers have caused some numbers to rise as one census did not differentiate and mixed those enrolled in public schools within homeschool numbers. I don’t recall if AK was one of them at the time, but I know that they have many, many individuals who use the publicly funded homeschool programs. I’m told that the independent numbers are dwindling there.

I don’t care much about the data, I just want those who want to homeschool independently to be able to find their rights and responsibilities quickly so they can get on with the business of helping their children.
Kerry Kantor on December 26th, 2008 7:55 pm

Mary: did you see this comment to Gaither’s article? Interestng!

“I was personally involved in the collection of data regarding homeschooled students in my school district. Previous to my involvement I found that in 95% of the time that the data was handled in such a manner as to not give a true representation of the numbers of students being homeschooled at the October student count date.

More times then I can count the registration forms on file with the school district were destroyed at the end of the public school year inspite of the fact that families were still homeschooling. Our state law states that a family can file their form at any time of the year and that this form is good for one calendar year. They were throwing away from in May for families that had only filed in April. The one year that I was permitted to handle the data as per state statute it showed a 40% increase in homeschooled students on the October 1 count date.

I presented this to the administration and they just blew me off. I went on to research the numbers myself and call other districts in my state to find out about their numbers and we very disappointed with their attitudes. Some years they did not even report their number in spite of the fact that they may have had 600 students the year before, and I would question the accuracy of that number. One year you would see 600 students reported and the next year they would have none? This makes no sense.

My theory is that the manpower and $ that must be invested in maintaining an accurate homeschool count, that brings no revenue to the district, has no priority.

I hope this is making sense. “
Ann Zeise on December 30th, 2008 4:30 pm

FYI, HEM’s own Larry Kaseman helped me locate the state data online in order to coordinate what HEM was going to publish about homeschool numbers.

The spreadsheet went back and forth several times until we were both satisfied that the numbers reflected current trends.

If you would download the Excel spreadsheet, you will see that the percentage used varies from year to year, and does NOT follow the same fraction over time.
DemographicStateComparison.xls, 323 KB.
http://homeschooling.gomilpitas.com/extras/DemographicStateComparison.xls

I have an extensive disclaimer, more than you posted.

So why post the numbers at all? Are they of any use?

I use the numbers to help to see if the number of support groups I list on my site seems to be in a fair proportion to the possible number of homeschoolers in each state. If there is growth in a state, I will give that state page more attention.

Those wishing to support homeschoolers in specific states need to know if there are enough homeschoolers in residence to support their efforts. A homeschool association or support group may want to reach out to more homeschoolers in their area, for example, if their growth numbers aren’t proportional to the state growth numbers.

Home Education Magazine may want to understand their subscription fluxuations as a function of homeschool growth or decline. This is just good marketing sense.

Ann Zeise
A to Z Home’s Cool
http://homeschooling.gomilpitas.com
Ann Zeise on December 30th, 2008 4:44 pm

Oh, and it is NOT based on anything from the 80s and 90s. It is based on the 2000 census, and data online from the few states that have their figures publicly available.

It does hold that the fraction of homeschoolers is approximately 1.7% of all school aged children in the USA in 2000. If you disagree with that fraction, use the spreadsheet to generate your own trends.

I then looked at the AVERAGE growth rate in states with public data to generate the years after 2000. I (and anyone else) have only have 9 states we can use. The rest are conjecture, based on statistics. And those 9 states are ones that require detailed registration for homeschooling, and are not any of the “easy” states for homeschooling.

If we want better numbers, someone needs to get a homeschooling question in th 2010 census!

Ann Zeise
A to Z Home’s Cool
http://homeschooling.gomilpitas.com
Mary on December 30th, 2008 5:52 pm

Hi– thanks for stopping by Ann. Perhaps I didn’t write it clearly enough, but those I inquired with, said used a formula shared at A-Z homeschooling that is based on the explosive growth that had occurred in the 80’s and 90’s.

I didn’t mean to indicate those were your words from your site, but the response I was given.
John Edelson, Time4Learning founder on January 18th, 2009 8:03 am

Mary – This is a sensible worthwhile article. A few questions and points.

The Federal Dept of Education Data Released in Dec 2008 a study that cites a nationwide statistic of 1.5M homeschoolers in 2007, up from 1.1 in 2003 along with other data. They explain their methodology within. http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2009/2009030.pdf What are you thoughts on it as a data source?

The endless quoting and misquoting and misinterpreting of old data is web-wide. It\’s one of the problems of everyone blogging. Professional journalists are often no better at fact checking or research. This post\’s type of research and analysis is rare.

I was involved in a recent effort (informal) to look at hot trends in educational choice over the last decade. Three hot trends that seem to have cooled in the last three years were magnet schools, charter schools, and homeschooling. The one trend that was red hot in the last two years was growth of public virtual schools. Our attempts at finding definitive timely data were not successful so we ended the effort by calling these conclusions: \"our impressions\".
Mary on January 18th, 2009 12:04 pm

I like the idea of calling your conclusions:”our impressions”. Do you have those collected anywhere? I’ve done a bit of investigating and have come to similar “impressions”.

You asked me what my thoughts are on recent NCES Federal Dept of Education Data Released in the Dec 2008 Study t as a data source? In the background explanation of the 1999-2001 NCES Survey, they explained how they gathered homeschool numbers. They wrote:”Students were considered to be homeschooled if their parents reported them being schooled at home instead of a public or private school, if their enrollment in public or private schools did not exceed 25 hours a week, and if they were not being homeschooled solely because of a temporary illness.”

A friend wrote the NCES at that time and asked them, “if the “25 hours a week” is correct or is it a misprint of the actual figure.” She explained that her reason for asking is that 25 hours a week would normally constitute full-time enrollment. The response she received was,

“If a student was reported as being homeschooled, he or she was counted as a homeschooler. One exception was in cases where a student was reported as being homeschooled and also attending a public or private school for more than 25 hours a week. In that case, they were not considered to be in the homeschool population for our estimates. Table 1 of that report provides a little more detail about the number of hours enrolled outside of the homeschool setting.”

This criteria remains in the latest study, with a parent reporting that their child being enrolled up to 25 hours per week in a public or private school could still be identified in the study as a homeschooler. Furthermore, I see no distinction between those who are independently homeschooling,those enrolled in public e-schools, those enrolled part time, etc. All good choices, but they are quite different in nature and especially in accountability measures. There is enough confusion concerning these choices without melding them all into one.

Therefore, in my opinion, this study simply perpetuates skewed statistics that claim homeschooling is growing. It simply makes no sense to me. It just seems as illogical as a woman going to a Dr. to see why she missed her period only to have the Dr. state that she is pregnant without an examination or a test. Things just aren’t always what they seem and to use a study that is flawed to begin with to claim homeschool growth seems illogical to me.

Additionally, there are privacy issues that I grow more and more concerned about. Since 1997, the National Center for Education’s suggested Basic Data Elements For Student Information Systems has grown from 131 to 881 basic elements that they suggest be gathered about students.

Back to their claim of there being 1.5M homeschoolers in 2007, up from 1.1 in 2003 along with other data. Are there that many of us? I don’t know? Each family knows who they are and quite frankly I don’t see the benefit, other than a business model of why others need to know as well.

Thanks for stopping by… as you can tell, this is a subject that is near and dear to me and I thank you for the opportunity to discuss it.